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Notre Dame knocking on door of top-25
Leprechaun Express: Notre Dame Football Intel Update Oct. 22, 2011
As Notre Dame readies to renew the biggest national rivalry in college football against Southern Cal, the Irish stand poised to try to crack the top-25 for the first time since their opening-season upset loss to South Florida.
Whether Notre Dame, 4-2, could do so with a win over the Trojans would remain to be seen. But as pointed out by Ara Parseghian in the pep rally before the Michigan State game, the way to move up in the rankings is to play tough opponents and beat them.
Ironically, perhaps escaping the notice of many, Notre Dame actually started receiving votes again both polls with a losing record, after blowing out the Spartans. The following week, after gutting out a tough win over Pitt on the road, Notre Dame stopped getting votes in one of the polls, but, at 2-2, still got votes in the other. After blowing out Purdue, Notre Dame went back to getting votes in both major polls. And after a blow-out win over a tough Air Force team, the Irish are closing in on the top-25 once again.
Heading into the Southern Cal game, Notre Dame is hovering around #27.
In the Harris Poll, used for BCS calculations, Notre Dame is #26.
In the AP poll, the only major poll that continues to vote for a national champion, Notre Dame is unranked and receiving enough votes to be the equivalent of #27.
In the USA Today Coaches Poll (which no longer votes for a national champion, in order to allow what is essentially its brand name to be used by the "BCS" for the final #1 ranking), Notre Dame is likewise #27.
Just ahead of Notre Dame at de facto #26 is Penn State (6-1).
In the entire AP top-25, there are still 10 teams that are undefeated, and 11 teams with a single loss. Teams that, like Notre Dame, have two losses, include Texas A&M at #17, Auburn at #19, and then Georgia and Arizona State tied at #24. Houston is actually sitting at #22 still undefeated.
Here is 15 through 24 in the AP poll heading into the Southern Cal game (two teams are tied at 24):
15- Michigan State 5-1
16- Virginia Tech 6-1
17- Texas A&M 4-2
18- Michigan 6-1
19- Auburn 5-2
20- Georgia Tech 6-1
21- Houston 6-0
22- Washington 5-1
23- Illinois 6-1
24- Georgia 5-2
24- Arizona State 5-2
So for Notre Dame to jump up, naturally they have to keep winning, and perhaps winning impressively. At the same time, there still are only a few teams in the top-25 whose records they can match. And there are teams outside the top-25, like Penn State, who have only a single loss thus far.
One interesting twist is that, with most teams in conferences, a number of teams pad their schedules early by playing weaker non-conference opponents, then suffer more attrition later during the conference schedules. Notre Dame, meanwhile, never really has a let-up in its schedule. Last year, Notre Dame played the toughest regular-season schedule in college football. In other words, Notre Dame, as an independent, played a tougher slate than, for example, anybody in the SEC.
What is curious, however, is that Notre Dame is higher in the Harris Poll but ebbing and flowing in the computer polls. One would have expected strength of schedule to help Notre Dame in the computers. But perhaps even the computers are biased a bit by bottom-line records resulting from padded schedules from some quarters. Over time that can balance out.
The bottom line, of course, is that if Notre Dame keeps winning, the rankings should take care of themselves.
Meanwhile, Irish fans will be focusing on the opponent at hand, this time Notre Dame's biggest classic rival in the biggest national rivalry in college football. Then, in what hopefully will be the after-glow of continued Notre Dame victories, we can reflect and scrutinize on polls.
There really are two rankings that matter. One is the AP poll, since it is the only complete poll left that actually votes on a national champion, and is not tied to a coalition of bowls and conferences.
The other is the combined "BCS" listing, because of its relationship with pairings for the Rose, Sugar, Orange and Fiesta Bowls, as well as the added would-be "title" bowl game. Notre Dame is a signatory to the "BCS " arrangement, and would like to continue visiting those bowls when possible. The "BCS" listing, of course, combines the Coaches Poll, the Harris Poll and a series of computer polls.
Ironically, when Notre Dame greatly enhanced the significance of bowls by deciding to start going to them in 1970, it was the Cotton Bowl that was a top bowl, that Notre Dame visited with frequency. In the 1970's, Notre Dame would participate in four Cotton Bowls, three of them deciding or impacting the national championship.
Then again, in the 1980's, it was Notre Dame who helped elevate the Fiest Bowl to major bowl status, as one of the independents who needed a place for top-ranked independents to play each other. Then-independents Penn State and Miami of Florida played a #1 vs. #2 game in which the Fiesta Bowl declared it would come up with the money to justify itself as such a venue. Then a few years later, Notre Dame played West Virginia in a #1 vs. #3 match-up at a time when the BIG EAST was not yet a football conference, and West Virginia was therefore a football independent.
In 2011, heading into the Southern Cal game, Notre Dame, at 4-2, is essentially two wins away from bowl eligibility.
Some observers have suggested Notre Dame needs to win out, go 10-2, to get a bid to the Orange, Sugar or Fiesta Bowl. If Notre Dame does get up to the point of being on the bubble for a "BCS" bowl, or even secure some kind of automatic bid, we can expect the usual debates.
Yet if Notre Dame keeps winning, the rankings should take care of themselves.
Keywords: Notre Dame Football, Notre Dame Fighting Irish Football, College Football Rankings, BCS Bowls, AP Poll, Coaches Poll, Harris Polll
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